By: Professor Emeritus Ilter TURAN (1)
Western societies take pride in possessing foresight and behaving with sincerity. At least, that is the image they would like to project to the world. If how they have chosen to behave vis a vis Iran is an example, nothing could be farther than the truth. The path both the US and Western Europe have chosen to follow lacks foresight and unfortunately, reeks of insincerity.
If you came from Mars and read the newspapers published in America, Britain and Germany, you would conclude that this trouble seeking country called Iran had attacked Israel with a barrage of UAVs, but fortunately with American, British and Jordanian aid, Israel had defended its skies. The Iranian attack had been a failure. Simply to prevent escalation, the heads of government from the US and Britain and others were pleading with the prime minister Netanyahu to please not to retaliate since this would lead to escalation and probably invite an Iranian response.
Those of us that are not from Mars but follow the news from a multiplicity of channels, some not based in America or Europe, became privy “by chance” to the information that Israel had attacked the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, killing some of the high ranking military officers that Iran has sent to Syria to organize al-Assad’s fight against the Kurds and mainly Sunni Arabs opposed to the regime. As anyone with modest familiarity with international law will tell you, embassies are treated as territories of the sovereign state they represent and attacking them is like attacking the country. This minute point appears to have escaped the attention of western leaders and newsmakers.
There also appears to be some doubt as to whether all UAVs failed to reach their targets or whether some achieved their mission. Admission that the Iron Dome system backed by the Americans, the British and the Jordanians among others (?) have failed in some instances is kept from the public. This, incidentally, would be an understandable position, if Israel had no intention to retaliate, but whether it will do something in return or consider its successful attack on the Iranian Embassy in Damascus sufficient is still a mystery. Messrs. Biden, Sunak, Schulz and others are asking that Netanyahu not to respond, allowing tensions to deescalate. Within almost the same sentence, however, they confirm their unconditional, unlimited support for Israel. Let us be honest, if you were in Netanyahu’s shoes, would you think that these leaders are serious when they ask you to exercise restraint when they simultaneously announce unlimited support for Israel. My judgment is that Netanyahu will do whatever he feels like doing. Israel’s supporters may express displeasure, but they will continue to support him. This is a questionable position since many Israelis are deeply aware that Mr. Netanyahu is promoting hostilities to prevent his being taken to court and be penalized.
The insincerity that has characterized American and European approaches to Israel is a long time trait rather just becoming manifest during this last Hamas challenge in Gaza and the Israeli response. As you might remember, the initial plan in Palestine was also to establish a Palestinian state in areas designated for it. The very countries that had supported this plan sat back and watched the Israelis occupy part of those areas and accept the settling of Jewish populations in areas that were presumably Palestinian territory. It has become reasonably clear by now that in particular the Netanyahu government has no intention of giving the Palestinians a home. He has proceeded to kill an unacceptable number of Palestinians in Gaza and the best the Palestinians can hope for is a down-graded status as a population that Israel has to put up with but would rather see vacate what they consider to be “Israeli” land.
This is where the lack of foresight comes in. The Palestinians are not going anywhere. By all indications, their reproduction rate is higher than Israelis. More to the point, however, is the fact that countries that were gradually moving to accept the existence of Israel in the region as natural, will come under immense pressure from their publics to protest what Israel is doing and put the improvement of relations with Israel on hold even if the current leadership in some would rather ignore what is happening. The Western friends of Israel might find an entire region against their visions of supporting an Israel that will not admit to the presence of Palestinians as a population with equal status. How long the “West” may sustain this outlook and be deprived of better relations with the rest of the countries in the region is not clear. It does appear that Western governments are trading short term gratification for long term problems. I would be hesitant to call this “foresight.” Greater problems may await the West in the region rendering it another area where the domination of the globe by the West will be tested. There is little assurance that the West will come out on top.
1.Professor Emeritus Turan, Member of the VIIMES Advisory Board. Former President of International Political Science Association. He got BA, Political Science, Oberlin College (1962), MA Columbia University (1964), Ph.D. Istanbul University (1966). He is currently the Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Istanbul Bilgi University, Turkie.
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