Security Forum 2023
67th CICA
11-12 May 2023
Krakow, Poland
” New World Security Order; Illusion or Reality ?”
Statement
by
Dr. Ali Asghar Soltanieh
President of the Vienna International Institute for Middle East Studies (VIIMES)
In the Name of God, the Most Gracious and the Most Merciful
A critical review of the recent developments indicates an apparently sudden change in world security order, a shock for those under an illusion, since the gradual developments were already giving signals since a decade ago. The following impartial holistic review, views in personal capacity, might draw a clear picture at this historical juncture:
• Miscalculations as well as aggressive policy, leading to military interventions specifically in Iraq and Afghanistan, leaving millions of innocent people dead, injured, and homeless, has contributed to the rise of China as a key player in the Middle East.
• Even beyond the Middle East, the emerging regional powers, India, Brazil, and South Africa have joined China and Russia to establish regional arrangements such as BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Such arrangements shall make a serious change in the world dynamic and order. These mechanisms, with direct or indirect impact from Chinese strategic plan, the so-called One Belt-One Road, shall make decisions, apparently on economic domains, independent from United States.
• Although BRICS is formed on an economic common denominator but the mechanism aims at “Promotion of Peace and Security, Development and Cooperation”.
• The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is the largest regional organization in terms of geographic scope and population, with more than 30% of the global GDP. It is a Eurasian political, economic, international security and defense organization.
• Some analysts are of the view that the Chinese dragon, decades apparently in the sleep mood, is awake now.
• The US policy was to withdraw from Afghanistan after 20 years of occupation as well as from Iraq, reducing its presence in the Middle East, in order to move to China’s backyard. Now China is filling the gap, not with force and bloodshed but by extending the hand. How genuine this friendly attitude is, remains to be seen.
• Interestingly, the majority of the world population in developing countries welcomes the shift from the unipolar to a multipolar order.
• Some optimistic scholars are of the view that China with the huge economic, industrial as well as military power, being a permanent member of the UN Security Council, shall play as a deterrence role vis-à-vis other big powers specifically the United States, creating a balance of power which ultimately contributes to global security and stability. However, some analysts are of the view that the United States cannot come to terms with the new reality and be downgraded as superpower, therefore it shall challenge or even wage war against China.
• China is undoubtedly a major economic power and an emerging key player on international security. China is the only Nuclear Weapon State which has declared “No First Use” in its nuclear doctrine.
• The Chinese approach towards other countries, specifically developing countries is quite different from that of the United States, as it does not raise the conditions such as “democracy“ or “human rights” and even security criteria as prerequisites for economic cooperation with other countries, thus China is much more welcome.
• Without justifying any military invasion, expressing sympathy with the wounds of loss of thousands of citizens on both sides and millions of refugees, many scholars are of the view that Russia was dragged into a war with Ukraine by provocation.
Despite western sanctions, Russia’s economy, specifically its citizen’s welfare is much better than anticipated. Russia is the major nuclear weapons possessor. Russia is a major energy supplier and a major nuclear power plant supplier.
Had the war not broken out between Russia and Ukraine, energy and food potentials respectively, could have contributed further to sustainable development. As a matter of fact, the one who starts a war is not the one who ends it. Reconstruction of physical damages will take a long time but humanitarian and phycological consequence may last decades if not centuries. Other countries should not provoke either sides or even just observe but must all try to play role as intermediators and stop the bloodshed. To move from turmoil to stability and peace they must turn to dialogue.
• As an aftermath of the Ukraine crisis, despite some differences including border dispute and even approaches towards international issues, Russia and China are more united than ever, as the result of western and NATO challenges and threats.
• The reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Islamic Republic of Iran, with China’s intermediary role, was a sort of shock to many western policy makers, and a bit of a surprise for others. This is a clear indication that China has turned into a major influential and trustful power in the Middle East.
• China is determined to secure specifically the western Asia, in order to pave the way for the realization of its strategic economic plan, the so-called “One Belt-One Road”.
• Long term strategic agreements between China and Russia with the Islamic Republic of Iran, has an indication of a triangle partnership. The recent naval drill of these three powers in the Gulf of Oman on 15 March 2023, shows the security cooperation dimension of the such a trilateral arrangement in the context of “Marine Security Belt”.
• In order to contain China, the United States somehow reduced its focus on the Middle East and moved to Far East, based on a military strategy with huge military investment including nuclear submarine project, so called AUKUS. Meanwhile, China moved to Middle East and is now filling the gap, not by military invasion and occupation but by active friendly diplomacy. This a new turning point in world order.
• Considering the fact that the main water way for import and export is via the Strait of Malacca, being vulnerable due to potential threat by the US, China has made the strategic decision to invest in the land option. At the same time, a secure waterway via Strait of Hormuz and Bab-al-Mandab is vital for China. Therefore, one better understands the justification of China’s endeavor for a peaceful and secure Persian Gulf and Middle East at large.
• As a strong regional power in the middle East, working hard for security of the Persian Gulf and Bab-al-Mandab, Iran is a vital security partner for China, in addition to its role as energy supplier.
• As regards to the EU vis-à-vis China in this context, a simple conclusion is the recognition by the EU of the collapse of unipolar order. At the same time EU is trying to liberate itself from full reliance on US, specifically in the economic area, and to engage with China. EU is trying to digest the new reality that China is a new emerging key player in global security. The recent visit of the French president and the EU chief to China and their declared positions, proves this assertion.
• An impartial critical review of the Ukraine crisis, without any justification of military invasion, shows that such a humanitarian catastrophe is the result of miscalculations, unipolar mindset, and provocations. The emergence of a new world security order, building a multipolar structure, is an immediate consequence of such a policy.
Conclusion:
Based on recent factual information, some of which was elaborated in this paper, we are at a historical turning point: the Emergence of a New Security World Order. The unipolar hegemony is fading out. This is not an illusion, which some western analyst thought of, but a reality on the ground. While economic blocs such as BRICS and Shanghai are further strengthened, new coalition of powers such as China, Russia, and Iran are shaped, and the last but not the least, the world is astonished by the reconciliation of Iran and Saudi Arabia with Chinese intermediation, paving the way for the settlement of acute crises in the Middle East, such as the humanitarian catastrophe in Yemen and Syria. Close relation between the Arab world and the Islamic Republic of Iran is a determinative factor in sustainable stability and security of West Asia, the so-called Middle East.
The author is of the view that these developments may lead us to a more secure world, provided that those who are still under the illusion of a unipolar world order, of military invasion under the pretext of establishing democracy, and the superiority of western values over eastern ones, reconsider their obsolete mindset and cope themselves with new reality as soon as possible.
The new world security order will only be sustainable if sovereign equality, territorial integrity, non-intervention in internal affairs of others, and self-determination of each state are respected.
The author hopes that impartial factual analysis by scholars aiming at enlightening the nations, could to some extent, prevent decision makers to commit crimes, wars and thus humanitarian tragedies.
Academic circles and Think Tanks, such as CICA and VIIMES, have heavy responsibilities in this regard.
Thank you for your kind attention.
Note:
VIIMES does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of VIIMES, its staff, or its trustees.